Santos vs Palmeiras Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Santos and 1.80 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Palmeiras the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Palmeiras win

56.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.00 – 1.80

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Santos home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Palmeiras away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Santos win21%

Draw23%

Palmeiras win56%

Double chance 1X

44%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

79%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

0–110.9%
1–110.9%
0–29.9%
1–29.9%
0–06.1%

Recent form

Santos

2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico-MG · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-08T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Flamengo · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-02T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Sao Paulo · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Remo · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-16T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico-MG · 2-4 (L)

Palmeiras

2026-10-11T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Corinthians · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-09T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Bahia · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gremio · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-16T22:00:00.000Z · A vs LDU de Quito · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-12T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Sao Paulo · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-09-03T00:30:00.000Z · Santos 0-0 Palmeiras (Copa Do Brasil)
2026-08-27T00:30:00.000Z · Santos 0-3 Palmeiras (Copa Do Brasil)
2026-05-02T21:30:00.000Z · Santos 1-1 Palmeiras (Serie A)
2026-01-14T22:30:00.000Z · Santos 0-1 Palmeiras (Paulista - A1)
2025-11-16T00:00:00.000Z · Santos 1-0 Palmeiras (Serie A)
2025-11-07T00:30:00.000Z · Santos 0-2 Palmeiras (Serie A)
2025-01-23T00:35:00.000Z · Santos 1-2 Palmeiras (Paulista - A1)
2024-04-07T21:00:00.000Z · Santos 0-2 Palmeiras (Paulista - A1)
2024-03-31T21:00:00.000Z · Santos 1-0 Palmeiras (Paulista - A1)
2024-01-28T21:00:00.000Z · Santos 1-2 Palmeiras (Paulista - A1)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Palmeiras win, at 56.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.