Vila Belmiro · Referee B. Arleu · Analysis updated 14:12 UTC
Santos vs Remo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Santos and 1.18 for Remo, a combined total of 2.99. That distribution gives Santos the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Santos win
52.1% probability
Expected goals
1.81 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Santos home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Remo away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Santos to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 23% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for Santos and 1.18 for Remo, a combined 2.99 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–09.1%
- 2–08.2%
- 1–26.3%
Recent form
Santos
- 2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico-MG · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-08T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Flamengo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-02T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Sao Paulo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Remo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico-MG · 2-4 (L)
Remo
- 2026-10-10T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Vasco DA Gama · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-07T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Gremio · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Santos · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Bahia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Flamengo · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-05T00:30:00.000Z · Santos 1-0 Remo (Copa Do Brasil)
- 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z · Santos 0-0 Remo (Copa Do Brasil)
- 2026-04-02T22:00:00.000Z · Santos 2-0 Remo (Serie A)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Santos win, at 52.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.