· Analysis updated 05:54 UTC
Santurtzi vs Amurrio Club Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for Santurtzi and 0.83 for Amurrio Club, a combined total of 2.68. That distribution gives Santurtzi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Santurtzi win
61.6% probability
Expected goals
1.85 – 0.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Amurrio Club away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Santurtzi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 22% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.85 goals for Santurtzi and 0.83 for Amurrio Club, a combined 2.68 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 50% and both teams to score at 47%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.7%
- 2–011.8%
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.7%
- 3–07.3%
Recent form
Santurtzi
Amurrio Club
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Leioa · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Erandio · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sodupe · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Alavés III · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Aurrerá Vitoria · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aurrerá Vitoria | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 2 | Aretxabaleta | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 3 | Leioa | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 13 |
| 4 | Derio | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Deportivo Alavés III | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 |
| 6 | San Ignacio | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Touring | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Real Sociedad III | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Sodupe | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 11 |
| 10 | Beasain | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 |
| 11 | Durango | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 12 | Pasaia KE | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 10 |
| 13 | Eibar III | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 14 | Lagun Onak | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 15 | Erandio | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 6 |
| 16 | Santurtzi | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 | R. Union B | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 5 |
| 18 | Amurrio Club | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Santurtzi win, at 61.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.