Sao Bento vs Linense Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.79 expected goals for Sao Bento and 1.07 for Linense, a combined total of 1.86. That distribution gives Linense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 29% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

73.6% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.79 – 1.07

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Linense away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Linense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 26% / 32% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.79 goals for Sao Bento and 1.07 for Linense, a combined 1.86 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 29% and both teams to score at 36%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%.

Match result (1X2)

Sao Bento win26%

Draw32%

Linense win42%

Double chance 1X

58%

Double chance 12

68%

Double chance X2

74%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals56%

Over 2.5 goals29%

Over 3.5 goals12%

Both teams to score36%

Correct score

0–116.7%
0–015.6%
1–113.1%
1–012.2%
0–29.0%

Recent form

Sao Bento

Linense

2026-08-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Bandeirante SP · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-15T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Marília · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-09T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Grêmio Prudente · 5-2 (W)
2026-08-03T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Grêmio Prudente · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Marília · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Paulista - A2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Água Santa	15	10	1	4	10	31
2	Ferroviária	15	8	4	3	10	28
3	Ituano	15	8	4	3	8	28
4	São José EC	15	8	3	4	8	27
5	Sertãozinho	15	7	4	4	0	25
6	Votuporanguense	15	7	3	5	-1	24
7	Juventus	15	6	5	4	2	23
8	XV de Piracicaba	15	6	4	5	1	22
9	Oeste	15	5	7	3	4	22
10	Santo André	15	5	3	7	-6	18
11	Taubaté	15	3	8	4	-1	17
12	Inter De Limeira	15	4	4	7	-3	16
13	Linense	15	2	7	6	-6	13
14	Monte Azul	15	2	6	7	-5	12
15	Grêmio Prudente	15	1	9	5	-4	12
16	Sao Bento	15	1	2	12	-17	5
1	Ferroviária	6	4	0	2	4	12
2	Juventus	6	4	0	2	3	12
3	São José EC	6	3	0	3	2	9
4	Sertãozinho	6	1	0	5	-9	3
1	Votuporanguense	6	4	1	1	8	13
2	Ituano	6	3	1	2	-1	10
3	XV de Piracicaba	6	2	2	2	2	8
4	Água Santa	6	0	2	4	-9	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 73.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 29%.

A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.