São Bernardo vs Athletic Club Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.47 expected goals for São Bernardo and 1.02 for Athletic Club, a combined total of 2.49. That distribution gives São Bernardo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

São Bernardo win

47.5% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.47 – 1.02

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

São Bernardo home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Athletic Club away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates São Bernardo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 26% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.47 goals for São Bernardo and 1.02 for Athletic Club, a combined 2.49 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

São Bernardo win48%

Draw26%

Athletic Club win26%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

53%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals71%

Over 2.5 goals45%

Over 3.5 goals24%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

1–112.4%
1–012.2%
2–19.1%
2–09.0%
0–18.5%

Recent form

São Bernardo

2026-09-25T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Novorizontino · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-19T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Goianiense · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-14T22:30:00.000Z · A vs America Mineiro · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-10T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Londrina · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-06T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Ponte Preta · 2-0 (W)

Athletic Club

2026-10-18T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Avai · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-13T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Londrina · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-06T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Goias · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-01T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Sport Recife · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-27T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Fortaleza EC · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vila Nova	34	18	8	8	15	62
2	Novorizontino	34	17	10	7	31	61
3	Juventude	34	17	10	7	18	61
4	Fortaleza EC	34	16	12	6	12	60
5	Criciuma	34	17	8	9	7	59
6	Atletico Goianiense	34	14	12	8	10	54
7	CRB	34	15	7	12	3	52
8	Sport Recife	34	13	12	9	8	51
9	Goias	34	14	7	13	-6	49
10	Operario-PR	34	13	9	12	-2	48
11	Cuiaba	33	11	14	8	6	47
12	São Bernardo	34	12	10	12	9	46
13	Botafogo SP	34	12	8	14	0	44
14	Athletic Club	34	10	14	10	1	44
15	Nautico Recife	34	11	10	13	-3	43
16	Ceara	34	11	10	13	-5	43
17	Avai	34	10	7	17	-10	37
18	Londrina	33	7	8	18	-7	29
19	America Mineiro	34	5	5	24	-32	20
20	Ponte Preta	34	3	5	26	-55	14

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is São Bernardo win, at 47.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.

A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.