· Analysis updated 17:33 UTC
São Caetano U20 vs Novorizontino U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.68 expected goals for São Caetano U20 and 1.28 for Novorizontino U20, a combined total of 1.95. That distribution gives Novorizontino U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Novorizontino U20 win
50.9% probability
Expected goals
0.68 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
São Caetano U20 home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Novorizontino U20 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Novorizontino U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 20% / 29% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.68 goals for São Caetano U20 and 1.28 for Novorizontino U20, a combined 1.95 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–118.1%
- 0–014.2%
- 1–112.2%
- 0–211.6%
- 1–09.6%
Recent form
São Caetano U20
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ibrachina U20 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Oeste U20 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Santo André U20 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-14T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Aguai U20 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs XV de Piracicaba U20 · 1-2 (L)
Novorizontino U20
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Portuguesa Santista U20 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Aguai U20 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs SC Paulinense SP U20 · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Oeste U20 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Botafogo SP U20 · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Paulista - U20 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Novorizontino U20 win, at 50.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.