· Analysis updated 06:36 UTC
São Caetano vs São José EC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.44 expected goals for São Caetano and 1.98 for São José EC, a combined total of 2.42. That distribution gives São José EC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
São José EC win
74.4% probability
Expected goals
0.44 – 1.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
São Caetano home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
São José EC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates São José EC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 7% / 18% / 74% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.44 goals for São Caetano and 1.98 for São José EC, a combined 2.42 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
26%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
93%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–117.6%
- 0–217.5%
- 0–311.6%
- 0–08.9%
- 1–17.7%
Recent form
São Caetano
- 2026-09-05T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Primavera SP · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Primavera SP · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs São José EC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Santo André · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs EC São Bernardo · 0-2 (L)
São José EC
- 2026-10-17T21:00:00.000Z · H vs União São João · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs União São João · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Noroeste · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Noroeste · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Comercial · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Copa Paulista table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | São José EC | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 23 |
| 2 | União São João | 14 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 21 |
| 3 | Primavera SP | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 18 |
| 4 | Grêmio Prudente | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 18 |
| 5 | Linense | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 15 |
| 6 | EC São Bernardo | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 12 |
| 7 | Noroeste | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | -1 | 12 |
| 8 | Juventus | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11 |
| 9 | Bandeirante SP | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Comercial | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | Santo André | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | Paulista | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 13 | XV de Piracicaba | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | Marília | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 15 | Oeste | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 16 | São Caetano | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -19 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is São José EC win, at 74.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 31% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.