· Analysis updated 06:49 UTC
São Cristóvão RJ vs Campo Grande Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for São Cristóvão RJ and 1.08 for Campo Grande, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives São Cristóvão RJ the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.9% probability
Expected goals
1.23 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Campo Grande away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates São Cristóvão RJ to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 28% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.23 goals for São Cristóvão RJ and 1.08 for Campo Grande, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 40% and both teams to score at 47%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.2%
- 1–012.3%
- 0–110.8%
- 0–010.0%
- 2–18.1%
Recent form
São Cristóvão RJ
Campo Grande
- 2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Duque de Caxias · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Nova Cidade · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Petrópolis · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Serrano RJ · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Macaé · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2025-09-27T17:45:00.000Z · São Cristóvão RJ 1-1 Campo Grande (Carioca - 2)
Carioca - 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Niteroiense | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 2 | Duque de Caxias | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 15 |
| 3 | Serrano RJ | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 4 | Goytacaz | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | Petrópolis | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 | Artsul | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Campo Grande | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 8 | Macaé | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 9 | Nova Cidade | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 10 | São Cristóvão RJ | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 11 | Audax Rio | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 4 |
| 12 | Carapebus | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -11 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.