· Analysis updated 09:23 UTC
São Cristóvão RJ vs Petrópolis Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.62 expected goals for São Cristóvão RJ and 0.89 for Petrópolis, a combined total of 1.51. That distribution gives Petrópolis the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 36%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 19% for over 2.5 goals and 27% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 22%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
76.0% probability
Expected goals
0.62 – 0.89
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Petrópolis away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Petrópolis to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 24% / 36% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.62 goals for São Cristóvão RJ and 0.89 for Petrópolis, a combined 1.51 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 19% and both teams to score at 27%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 22%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
64%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–022.2%
- 0–119.7%
- 1–013.7%
- 1–112.2%
- 0–28.8%
Recent form
São Cristóvão RJ
Petrópolis
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Artsul · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Campo Grande · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Audax Rio · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Goytacaz · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Niteroiense · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Carioca - 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Duque de Caxias | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | Niteroiense | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 19 |
| 3 | Serrano RJ | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | Goytacaz | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 5 | Petrópolis | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 6 | Artsul | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Campo Grande | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 12 |
| 8 | Macaé | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | São Cristóvão RJ | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 10 | Nova Cidade | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 6 |
| 11 | Audax Rio | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 5 |
| 12 | Carapebus | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -13 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 76.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 27% and over 2.5 goals at 19%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.