· Analysis updated 13:26 UTC
São Gonçalo EC RJ vs Serrano RJ Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for São Gonçalo EC RJ and 0.77 for Serrano RJ, a combined total of 1.95. That distribution gives São Gonçalo EC RJ the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
São Gonçalo EC RJ win
45.5% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 0.77
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
São Gonçalo EC RJ home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Serrano RJ away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.8%
- 0–014.3%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–111.0%
- 2–09.9%
Recent form
São Gonçalo EC RJ
- 2026-08-12T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Sampaio Corrêa RJ · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-05T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Sampaio Corrêa RJ · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-20T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Volta Redonda · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-16T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Volta Redonda · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-04T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Audax Rio · 2-1 (W)
Serrano RJ
- 2026-10-24T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Nova Cidade · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Petrópolis · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Carapebus · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Macaé · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Artsul · 4-3 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-27T17:45:00.000Z · São Gonçalo EC RJ 3-0 Serrano RJ (Carioca A2)
- 2026-06-24T14:00:00.000Z · São Gonçalo EC RJ 3-2 Serrano RJ (Copa Rio)
- 2026-06-17T17:45:00.000Z · São Gonçalo EC RJ 0-0 Serrano RJ (Copa Rio)
- 2024-10-26T18:00:00.000Z · São Gonçalo EC RJ 2-0 Serrano RJ (Carioca - 2)
- 2023-10-28T18:00:00.000Z · São Gonçalo EC RJ 3-4 Serrano RJ (Carioca - 2)
- 2021-10-23T18:00:00.000Z · São Gonçalo EC RJ 1-0 Serrano RJ (Carioca - 2)
- 2021-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · São Gonçalo EC RJ 1-2 Serrano RJ (Carioca - 2)
- 2020-11-11T18:00:00.000Z · São Gonçalo EC RJ 0-1 Serrano RJ (Carioca - 2)
- 2019-08-31T18:00:00.000Z · São Gonçalo EC RJ 0-0 Serrano RJ (Carioca - 2)
Copa Rio table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boavista SC | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 17 |
| 2 | Sampaio Corrêa RJ | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 17 |
| 3 | Nova Iguaçu | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 4 | Olaria | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 5 | São Gonçalo EC RJ | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 6 | Madureira | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 7 | Pérolas Negras | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 8 | América RJ | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 9 | CFRJ / Maricá | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Resende | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 |
| 11 | Bonsucesso | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 12 | Americano Campos | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Portuguesa RJ | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 14 | São Cristóvão RJ | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 15 | CEAC / Araruama | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 |
| 16 | Serrano RJ | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 17 | Macaé | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 18 | Volta Redonda | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 19 | Bangu | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 20 | Cabofriense | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 21 | Duque de Caxias | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
| 22 | Goytacaz | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
| 23 | SE Belford Roxo | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -9 | 0 |
| 24 | Santa Cruz RJ | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -9 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is São Gonçalo EC RJ win, at 45.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.