· Analysis updated 20:03 UTC
Sao Joao del Rei U20 vs Uberabinha U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Sao Joao del Rei U20 and 0.88 for Uberabinha U20, a combined total of 2.33. That distribution gives Sao Joao del Rei U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sao Joao del Rei U20 win
50.6% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Uberabinha U20 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sao Joao del Rei U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 27% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Sao Joao del Rei U20 and 0.88 for Uberabinha U20, a combined 2.33 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 41% and both teams to score at 45%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.2%
- 1–112.4%
- 2–010.3%
- 0–09.8%
- 2–19.0%
Recent form
Sao Joao del Rei U20
Uberabinha U20
- 2026-08-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sao Joao del Rei U20 · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-08-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter de Minas U20 · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Minas Boca U20 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Villa Real U20 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Betim U20 · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Mineiro U20 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlético Mineiro U20 | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 33 | 40 |
| 2 | Cruzeiro U20 | 19 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 18 | 39 |
| 3 | Athletic Club MG U20 | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 35 |
| 4 | Nacional de Muriae U20 | 19 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 33 |
| 5 | América Mineiro U20 | 19 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 31 |
| 6 | Coimbra U20 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 30 |
| 7 | Boston City U20 | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 28 |
| 8 | Itabirito U20 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 25 |
| 9 | Betim U20 | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | -17 | 20 |
| 10 | Inter de Minas U20 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 18 |
| 11 | Sao Joao del Rei U20 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
| 12 | Villa Real U20 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | -9 | 16 |
| 13 | Social U20 | 19 | 4 | 4 | 11 | -26 | 16 |
| 14 | Minas Boca U20 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -18 | 10 |
| 15 | Uberabinha U20 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 12 | -22 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sao Joao del Rei U20 win, at 50.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.