· Analysis updated 18:19 UTC
São João Ver vs Fafe Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.94 expected goals for São João Ver and 1.20 for Fafe, a combined total of 2.14. That distribution gives Fafe the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
71.3% probability
Expected goals
0.94 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
São João Ver home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Fafe away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fafe to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 29% / 29% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.94 goals for São João Ver and 1.20 for Fafe, a combined 2.14 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.2%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–011.8%
- 1–011.1%
- 0–28.5%
Recent form
São João Ver
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Pacos Ferreira · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs AD Marco 09 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Florgrade · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Trofense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fafe · 1-3 (L)
Fafe
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Felgueiras 1932 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Trofense · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Lajense · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Paredes · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Leça · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paredes | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 16 |
| 1 | CF Os Belenenses | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 16 |
| 2 | AD Marco 09 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 2 | Atlético CP | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Fafe | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 3 | Oliveirense | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 4 | Leça | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 4 | Mafra | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 |
| 5 | Vianense | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 5 | Caldas | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 6 | Varzim | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | União Santarém | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 7 |
| 7 | Pacos Ferreira | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 7 | Louletano | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 8 | São João Ver | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 8 | SC Covilha | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 9 | Guimaraes B | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 9 | Lusitano Évora 1911 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 10 | Trofense | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 5 |
| 10 | Vitória de Sernache | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 71.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.