· Analysis updated 14:45 UTC
São João Ver vs Varzim Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.65 expected goals for São João Ver and 1.70 for Varzim, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Varzim the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Varzim win
62.8% probability
Expected goals
0.65 – 1.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
São João Ver home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Varzim away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
37%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
86%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.2%
- 0–213.8%
- 1–110.5%
- 0–09.5%
- 1–29.0%
Recent form
São João Ver
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Pacos Ferreira · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs AD Marco 09 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Florgrade · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Trofense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fafe · 1-3 (L)
Varzim
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitória de Sernache · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vianense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Paredes · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Trofense · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Pacos Ferreira · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2025-11-29T15:00:00.000Z · São João Ver 1-1 Varzim (Liga 3)
- 2025-08-16T15:00:00.000Z · São João Ver 0-4 Varzim (Liga 3)
- 2025-01-26T15:00:00.000Z · São João Ver 4-1 Varzim (Liga 3)
- 2024-10-26T14:00:00.000Z · São João Ver 0-2 Varzim (Liga 3)
- 2023-04-22T14:00:00.000Z · São João Ver 1-1 Varzim (Liga 3)
- 2023-04-01T14:00:00.000Z · São João Ver 2-1 Varzim (Liga 3)
- 2023-02-11T21:00:00.000Z · São João Ver 1-0 Varzim (Liga 3)
- 2022-11-08T19:00:00.000Z · São João Ver 0-1 Varzim (Taça de Portugal)
- 2022-10-29T14:00:00.000Z · São João Ver 1-0 Varzim (Liga 3)
Liga 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paredes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 1 | CF Os Belenenses | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 15 |
| 2 | Leça | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 2 | Atlético CP | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 3 | AD Marco 09 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 3 | Oliveirense | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 4 | Vianense | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | Mafra | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 |
| 5 | Varzim | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 5 | Caldas | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | Fafe | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 |
| 6 | Louletano | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 7 | Guimaraes B | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 7 | União Santarém | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 7 |
| 8 | Trofense | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 8 | SC Covilha | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 9 | São João Ver | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 9 | Lusitano Évora 1911 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 10 | Pacos Ferreira | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 2 |
| 10 | Vitória de Sernache | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Varzim win, at 62.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.