Francisco Novelletto Neto · Analysis updated 14:50 UTC
Sao Jose vs Azuriz Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.85 expected goals for Sao Jose and 0.62 for Azuriz, a combined total of 1.47. That distribution gives Sao Jose the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 37%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 18% for over 2.5 goals and 27% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 23%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
75.1% probability
Expected goals
0.85 – 0.62
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Azuriz away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sao Jose to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 37% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.85 goals for Sao Jose and 0.62 for Azuriz, a combined 1.47 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 18% and both teams to score at 27%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 23%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
63%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–023.0%
- 1–019.5%
- 0–114.3%
- 1–112.1%
- 2–08.3%
Recent form
Sao Jose
Azuriz
- 2026-06-07T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Brasil DE Pelotas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-01T23:15:00.000Z · A vs Marcílio Dias · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-24T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Blumenau · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-05-19T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Independiente FSJ · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-09T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Sao Jose · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 75.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 27% and over 2.5 goals at 18%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.