· Analysis updated 16:43 UTC
São Paulo RS vs Cruz A. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.47 expected goals for São Paulo RS and 1.02 for Cruz A., a combined total of 2.49. That distribution gives São Paulo RS the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
São Paulo RS win
47.3% probability
Expected goals
1.47 – 1.02
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
São Paulo RS home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates São Paulo RS to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 26% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.47 goals for São Paulo RS and 1.02 for Cruz A., a combined 2.49 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 45% and both teams to score at 49%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 1–012.2%
- 2–19.1%
- 2–08.9%
- 0–18.5%
Recent form
São Paulo RS
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Panambi · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Farroupilha · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs SC Rio Grande · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cruz A. · 1-2 (L)
- 2025-11-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Apafut · 1-1 (D)
Cruz A.
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Real · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Clube 1992 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs São Paulo RS · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Gaúcho - 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 28 | 20 |
| 2 | Panambi | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 17 |
| 3 | Futebol Com Vida | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 16 |
| 4 | São Paulo RS | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 15 |
| 5 | Cruz A. | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 | Farroupilha | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 7 | FBC Riograndense RS | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 8 | Clube 1992 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 9 | EC Novo Horizonte | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -24 | 3 |
| 10 | SC Rio Grande | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -20 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is São Paulo RS win, at 47.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.