· Analysis updated 14:25 UTC
São Paulo U20 vs Ibrachina U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for São Paulo U20 and 1.39 for Ibrachina U20, a combined total of 2.44. That distribution gives Ibrachina U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
71.6% probability
Expected goals
1.05 – 1.39
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
São Paulo U20 home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ibrachina U20 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ibrachina U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 28% / 27% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.05 goals for São Paulo U20 and 1.39 for Ibrachina U20, a combined 2.44 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 0–112.1%
- 1–09.1%
- 1–28.9%
- 0–08.7%
Recent form
São Paulo U20
- 2026-10-08T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Athletico PR U20 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs EC São Bernardo U20 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs EC São Bernardo U20 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs União São João U20 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Gremio Santo Antonio U20 · 13-1 (W)
Ibrachina U20
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Desportivo Brasil U20 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs São Paulo U20 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Santo André U20 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-07T18:00:00.000Z · A vs SC Paulinense SP U20 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-31T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Bandeirante U20 · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Paulista - U20 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 71.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.