· Analysis updated 11:54 UTC
São Salvador vs Petro de Luanda Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.38 expected goals for São Salvador and 0.92 for Petro de Luanda, a combined total of 1.30. That distribution gives Petro de Luanda the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 38%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 14% for over 2.5 goals and 19% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 27%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Petro de Luanda win
47.4% probability
Expected goals
0.38 – 0.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
São Salvador home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Petro de Luanda away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Petro de Luanda to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 15% / 38% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.38 goals for São Salvador and 0.92 for Petro de Luanda, a combined 1.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
62%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–027.2%
- 0–125.0%
- 0–211.5%
- 1–010.4%
- 1–19.6%
Recent form
São Salvador
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs 1º de Maio · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Desportivo Huíla · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting de Cabinda · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-17T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Petro de Luanda · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bravos do Maquis FC · 1-0 (W)
Petro de Luanda
- 2026-10-23T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Scotland Mabvuku · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Scotland Mabvuku · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Kabuscorp · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Recreativo da Caála · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-17T14:30:00.000Z · A vs São Salvador · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Girabola table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wiliete | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 16 |
| 2 | Desportivo Huíla | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 16 |
| 3 | Petro de Luanda | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | Bravos do Maquis FC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | 1º de Agosto | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Interclube | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | Sagrada Esperança | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | CD Lunda-Sul | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Recreativo do Libolo | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -6 | 9 |
| 10 | São Salvador | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | 1º de Maio | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Recreativo da Caála | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Kabuscorp | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | FC Luanda | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 5 |
| 15 | Sporting de Cabinda | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Académica do Lobito | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Petro de Luanda win, at 47.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 19% and over 2.5 goals at 14%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.