Sarıyer vs Muğlaspor Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Sarıyer and 1.15 for Muğlaspor, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Sarıyer the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

69.1% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.40 – 1.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sarıyer home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Muğlaspor away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sarıyer to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 26% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Sarıyer and 1.15 for Muğlaspor, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Sarıyer win43%

Draw26%

Muğlaspor win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals47%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

1–112.6%
1–011.0%
0–19.0%
2–18.8%
0–07.8%

Recent form

Sarıyer

2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sivasspor · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bodrum FK · 1-4 (L)
2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ümraniyespor · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Boluspor · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Bandırmaspor · 1-1 (D)

Muğlaspor

2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Fatih Karagümrük · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Iğdır FK · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sivasspor · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Vanspor FK · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ümraniyespor · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1. Lig table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Kayserispor	11	8	2	1	17	26
2	Bursaspor	11	8	1	2	13	25
3	Iğdır FK	11	7	2	2	7	23
4	Keçiörengücü	11	5	5	1	10	20
5	Batman Petrolspor	11	6	2	3	3	20
6	Mardin 1969	11	5	3	3	4	18
7	Antalyaspor	11	6	0	5	0	18
8	Sarıyer	11	4	4	3	-1	16
9	Muğlaspor	11	3	6	2	-1	15
10	Bandırmaspor	11	3	5	3	8	14
11	Bodrum FK	11	3	5	3	3	14
12	Sivasspor	11	2	7	2	1	13
13	Fatih Karagümrük	11	3	4	4	-1	13
14	Esenler Erokspor	11	2	6	3	-3	12
15	Ümraniyespor	10	2	4	4	-1	10
16	Manisa F.K.	11	2	4	5	-2	10
17	Pendikspor	11	2	4	5	-9	10
18	Vanspor FK	11	2	3	6	-12	7
19	İstanbulspor	11	1	2	8	-17	5
20	Boluspor	10	0	1	9	-19	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.