Yusuf Ziya Öniş Stadium · Referee Emrullah Baydar, Türkiye · Analysis updated 15:34 UTC
Sarıyer vs Pendikspor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Sarıyer and 1.19 for Pendikspor, a combined total of 3.09. That distribution gives Sarıyer the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sarıyer win
53.9% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.19
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sarıyer home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pendikspor away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sarıyer to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 22% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Sarıyer and 1.19 for Pendikspor, a combined 3.09 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–08.6%
- 2–08.2%
- 3–16.2%
Recent form
Sarıyer
- 2026-10-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bodrum FK · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ümraniyespor · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Boluspor · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Bandırmaspor · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Keçiörengücü · 0-3 (L)
Pendikspor
- 2026-10-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Vanspor FK · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sivasspor · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-02T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Galatasaray · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bodrum FK · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Boluspor · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kayserispor | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 25 |
| 2 | Bursaspor | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 22 |
| 3 | Iğdır FK | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 20 |
| 4 | Batman Petrolspor | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 19 |
| 5 | Mardin 1969 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 18 |
| 6 | Keçiörengücü | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 17 |
| 7 | Sarıyer | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 15 |
| 8 | Antalyaspor | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 15 |
| 9 | Bandırmaspor | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 14 |
| 10 | Fatih Karagümrük | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
| 11 | Sivasspor | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 12 | Muğlaspor | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | -2 | 12 |
| 13 | Bodrum FK | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 14 | Manisa F.K. | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 15 | Pendikspor | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -7 | 10 |
| 16 | Esenler Erokspor | 10 | 1 | 6 | 3 | -5 | 9 |
| 17 | Ümraniyespor | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 18 | Vanspor FK | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 7 |
| 19 | İstanbulspor | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -15 | 5 |
| 20 | Boluspor | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | -18 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sarıyer win, at 53.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.