· Analysis updated 15:46 UTC
Sarakinos vs Asteras Kard. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Sarakinos and 1.65 for Asteras Kard., a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Asteras Kard. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.9% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sarakinos home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Asteras Kard. away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Asteras Kard. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 32% / 24% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Sarakinos and 1.65 for Asteras Kard., a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–18.0%
- 2–17.6%
- 1–06.7%
Recent form
Sarakinos
- 2026-04-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kozani · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Eordaikos · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-01T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Evosmou · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-03-28T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Akrites Sykeon · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-22T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Asteras Kard. · 6-1 (W)
Asteras Kard.
- 2026-04-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Akrites Sykeon · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kozani · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-01T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Eordaikos · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-03-28T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Evosmou · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-03-22T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sarakinos · 1-6 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-22T13:00:00.000Z · Sarakinos 6-1 Asteras Kard. (Gamma Ethniki - Group 2)
- 2026-02-21T13:00:00.000Z · Sarakinos 4-1 Asteras Kard. (Gamma Ethniki - Group 2)
- 2025-11-23T13:00:00.000Z · Sarakinos 2-1 Asteras Kard. (Gamma Ethniki - Group 2)
Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Poseidon Nea Michaniona | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| 2 | Finikas Polichnis | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Mpam | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| 4 | Iraklis Therm. | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| 5 | Agiou Nikolaou | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 6 | Makedonikos Neapolis | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 7 | Polykastrou | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 8 | Akrites Sykeon | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 9 | Panedessaikos | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 10 | Kilkisiakos | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 11 | PAO Kristoni | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.