· Analysis updated 11:16 UTC
Sarakinos vs Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.04 expected goals for Sarakinos and 1.72 for Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou, a combined total of 2.76. That distribution gives Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou win
53.3% probability
Expected goals
1.04 – 1.72
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sarakinos home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 23% / 24% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.04 goals for Sarakinos and 1.72 for Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou, a combined 2.76 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 0–110.9%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–29.4%
- 1–06.6%
Recent form
Sarakinos
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Trikala · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pierikos · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Karitsa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kozani · 1-0 (W)
Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Feraios · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Elassona · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Elassona · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-05-14T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Panthrakikos · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-05-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Apollon Pontou · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-18T13:00:00.000Z · Sarakinos 0-4 Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou (Gamma Ethniki - Group 2)
- 2025-10-19T13:00:00.000Z · Sarakinos 0-1 Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou (Gamma Ethniki - Group 2)
Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anthoupoli | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 2 | Trikala | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 4 | Ermis Exochi | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 5 | Elassona | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Pierikos | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Karitsa | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Feraios | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 9 | Sarakinos | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 10 | Digenis Neochori | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 2 |
| 11 | Iraklis Larissa | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou win, at 53.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.