· Analysis updated 21:43 UTC
Sarakinos vs Kozani Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Sarakinos and 1.35 for Kozani, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Kozani the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.2% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sarakinos home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kozani away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kozani to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 36% / 26% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Sarakinos and 1.35 for Kozani, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 0–19.5%
- 1–09.2%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–18.1%
Recent form
Sarakinos
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Trikala · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pierikos · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Karitsa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kozani · 1-0 (W)
Kozani
- 2026-04-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sarakinos · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Asteras Kard. · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-01T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Akrites Sykeon · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-03-28T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Eordaikos · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-22T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Evosmou · 5-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Finikas Polichnis | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 2 | Poseidon Nea Michaniona | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 3 | Agiou Nikolaou | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
| 4 | Mpam | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 5 | Iraklis Therm. | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | Makedonikos Neapolis | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 7 | Polykastrou | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 8 | Akrites Sykeon | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 9 | Kilkisiakos | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 2 |
| 10 | Panedessaikos | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 1 |
| 11 | PAO Kristoni | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.