· Analysis updated 07:58 UTC
Sardarapat 2 vs Ararat-Armenia II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Sardarapat 2 and 1.92 for Ararat-Armenia II, a combined total of 3.07. That distribution gives Ararat-Armenia II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ararat-Armenia II win
55.4% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sardarapat 2 home form
0 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Ararat-Armenia II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ararat-Armenia II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 23% / 22% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Sardarapat 2 and 1.92 for Ararat-Armenia II, a combined 3.07 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.2%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–18.9%
- 0–28.6%
- 1–36.3%
Recent form
Sardarapat 2
- 2026-10-08T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Mika · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-22T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Ararat-Armenia II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-15T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Lernayin Artsakh · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-08T12:00:00.000Z · H vs BKMA II · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-02T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Pyunik II · 0-1 (L)
Ararat-Armenia II
- 2026-10-13T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Araks Ararat · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-08T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Andranik · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-22T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Sardarapat 2 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bentonit Ijevan · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-09-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Banants II · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olympia Yerevan | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 23 |
| 2 | Andranik | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 22 |
| 3 | BKMA II | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 19 |
| 4 | Bentonit Ijevan | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 18 |
| 5 | Araks Ararat | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 6 | Lernayin Artsakh | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 15 |
| 7 | Mika | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 8 | Pyunik II | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 9 | Shirak II | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 10 |
| 10 | Ararat II | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 11 | Sardarapat 2 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 9 |
| 12 | Banants II | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -9 | 8 |
| 13 | Noah II | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -15 | 6 |
| 14 | Ararat-Armenia II | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ararat-Armenia II win, at 55.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.