· Analysis updated 14:31 UTC
Sardarapat 2 vs Noah II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Sardarapat 2 and 1.34 for Noah II, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Sardarapat 2 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.0% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.34
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sardarapat 2 home form
0 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Noah II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sardarapat 2 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 25% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Sardarapat 2 and 1.34 for Noah II, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–08.7%
- 1–27.9%
- 0–17.8%
Recent form
Sardarapat 2
- 2026-10-08T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Mika · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-22T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Ararat-Armenia II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-15T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Lernayin Artsakh · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-08T12:00:00.000Z · H vs BKMA II · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-02T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Pyunik II · 0-1 (L)
Noah II
- 2026-09-21T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Shirak II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Ararat II · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-07T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Araks Ararat · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Andranik · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sardarapat 2 · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olympia Yerevan | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 19 |
| 2 | BKMA II | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 16 |
| 3 | Bentonit Ijevan | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 14 |
| 4 | Andranik | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 13 |
| 5 | Lernayin Artsakh | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Pyunik II | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | Araks Ararat | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Mika | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 9 | Banants II | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -6 | 7 |
| 10 | Shirak II | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 7 |
| 11 | Ararat II | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 12 | Noah II | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -12 | 6 |
| 13 | Ararat-Armenia II | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 14 | Sardarapat 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.