Armavir stadium · Analysis updated 15:58 UTC
Sardarapat vs Pyunik Yerevan Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Sardarapat and 2.12 for Pyunik Yerevan, a combined total of 3.31. That distribution gives Pyunik Yerevan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Pyunik Yerevan win
58.9% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 2.12
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sardarapat home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pyunik Yerevan away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pyunik Yerevan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 21% / 21% / 59% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.18 goals for Sardarapat and 2.12 for Pyunik Yerevan, a combined 3.31 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
41%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.8%
- 1–19.2%
- 0–28.3%
- 0–17.8%
- 1–36.9%
Recent form
Sardarapat
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Noah · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs BKMA · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Alashkert · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Pyunik Yerevan · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Shirak · 0-2 (L)
Pyunik Yerevan
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Alashkert · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Shirak · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sardarapat · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Syunik · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ararat-Armenia · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-09T12:00:00.000Z · Sardarapat 2-4 Pyunik Yerevan (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Noah | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 28 |
| 2 | Pyunik Yerevan | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 18 | 25 |
| 3 | Ararat-Armenia | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 23 |
| 4 | Alashkert | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 22 |
| 5 | FC Urartu | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 16 |
| 6 | Sardarapat | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 16 |
| 7 | Shirak | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 11 |
| 8 | Ararat | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 11 |
| 9 | Van | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -17 | 10 |
| 10 | BKMA | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 8 |
| 11 | Syunik | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -16 | 5 |
| 12 | Gandzasar | 11 | 1 | 0 | 10 | -18 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Pyunik Yerevan win, at 58.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.