· Analysis updated 06:48 UTC
Sardor Tursunzoda vs Istiqlol Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.68 expected goals for Sardor Tursunzoda and 1.69 for Istiqlol, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Istiqlol the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Istiqlol win
61.7% probability
Expected goals
0.68 – 1.69
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sardor Tursunzoda home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Istiqlol away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Istiqlol to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 15% / 24% / 62% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.68 goals for Sardor Tursunzoda and 1.69 for Istiqlol, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
38%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.7%
- 0–213.3%
- 1–110.8%
- 0–09.3%
- 1–29.1%
Recent form
Sardor Tursunzoda
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Barki Tajik · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Khatlon · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-14T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Khosilot Farkhor · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-07-31T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Parvoz · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-06-28T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Istiqlol · 0-1 (L)
Istiqlol
- 2026-10-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wathba · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Arabi · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Nejmeh · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-15T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Khujand · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Khosilot Farkhor · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Vysshaya Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Regar-TadAZ | 18 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 40 |
| 2 | Istiqlol | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 37 |
| 3 | Khosilot Farkhor | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 35 |
| 4 | CSKA Pomir | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 27 |
| 5 | Khujand | 17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 27 |
| 6 | Ravshan | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 26 |
| 7 | Khatlon | 19 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 26 |
| 8 | Barki Tajik | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | -1 | 25 |
| 9 | Eskhata | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | -10 | 20 |
| 10 | Parvoz | 20 | 4 | 4 | 12 | -20 | 16 |
| 11 | Sardor Tursunzoda | 17 | 2 | 6 | 9 | -8 | 12 |
| 12 | Istaravshan | 19 | 0 | 6 | 13 | -22 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Istiqlol win, at 61.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.