· Analysis updated 14:32 UTC
Sardor Tursunzoda vs Khatlon Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.68 expected goals for Sardor Tursunzoda and 1.76 for Khatlon, a combined total of 3.44. That distribution gives Khatlon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
62.8% probability
Expected goals
1.68 – 1.76
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sardor Tursunzoda home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Khatlon away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Khatlon to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 37% / 23% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.68 goals for Sardor Tursunzoda and 1.76 for Khatlon, a combined 3.44 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.5%
- 1–28.3%
- 2–18.0%
- 2–27.0%
- 0–15.6%
Recent form
Sardor Tursunzoda
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Barki Tajik · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Khatlon · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-14T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Khosilot Farkhor · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-07-31T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Parvoz · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-06-28T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Istiqlol · 0-1 (L)
Khatlon
- 2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Parvoz · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Regar-TadAZ · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-11T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Sardor Tursunzoda · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Istaravshan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-15T13:30:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Pomir · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Vysshaya Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Istiqlol | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 37 |
| 2 | Regar-TadAZ | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 37 |
| 3 | Khosilot Farkhor | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 34 |
| 4 | Barki Tajik | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 24 |
| 5 | CSKA Pomir | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | -2 | 24 |
| 6 | Khujand | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 24 |
| 7 | Ravshan | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 22 |
| 8 | Khatlon | 17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 20 |
| 9 | Eskhata | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | -10 | 19 |
| 10 | Parvoz | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | -17 | 15 |
| 11 | Sardor Tursunzoda | 16 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -8 | 11 |
| 12 | Istaravshan | 17 | 0 | 6 | 11 | -20 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 62.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.