Stadio Ciudad de La Banda · Analysis updated 06:13 UTC
Sarmiento de La Banda vs Sol de América Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Sarmiento de La Banda and 0.87 for Sol de América, a combined total of 2.07. That distribution gives Sarmiento de La Banda the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
73.1% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sarmiento de La Banda home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sol de América away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sarmiento de La Banda to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 30% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Sarmiento de La Banda and 0.87 for Sol de América, a combined 2.07 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.1%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–012.6%
- 0–111.0%
- 2–09.0%
Recent form
Sarmiento de La Banda
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Defensores de Belgrano VR · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs San Martin Formosa · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs 9 de Julio Rafaela · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Belgrano · 3-0 (W)
Sol de América
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cipolletti · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-27T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Cipolletti · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs 9 de Julio Rafaela · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Belgrano · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 73.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.