Stadio Ciudad de La Banda · Analysis updated 14:16 UTC
Sarmiento de La Banda vs Sportivo Belgrano Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Sarmiento de La Banda and 0.70 for Sportivo Belgrano, a combined total of 1.72. That distribution gives Sarmiento de La Banda the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 25% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
75.5% probability
Expected goals
1.03 – 0.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sarmiento de La Banda home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sportivo Belgrano away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sarmiento de La Banda to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 33% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for Sarmiento de La Banda and 0.70 for Sportivo Belgrano, a combined 1.72 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.3%
- 0–017.8%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–112.5%
- 2–09.4%
Recent form
Sarmiento de La Banda
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Defensores de Belgrano VR · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs San Martin Formosa · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs 9 de Julio Rafaela · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Belgrano · 3-0 (W)
Sportivo Belgrano
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Douglas Haig · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Sol de América · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T19:05:00.000Z · H vs Bartolomé Mitre · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sarmiento de La Banda · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Defensores de Belgrano VR · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · Sarmiento de La Banda 3-0 Sportivo Belgrano (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-09-07T18:30:00.000Z · Sarmiento de La Banda 1-4 Sportivo Belgrano (Torneo Federal A)
- 2024-08-31T00:30:00.000Z · Sarmiento de La Banda 0-0 Sportivo Belgrano (Torneo Federal A)
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 75.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 32% and over 2.5 goals at 25%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.