Estadio Eva Peron · Referee H. Mastrangelo · Analysis updated 14:20 UTC
Sarmiento Junin vs Huracan Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.91 expected goals for Sarmiento Junin and 0.99 for Huracan, a combined total of 1.90. That distribution gives Huracan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.0% probability
Expected goals
0.91 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sarmiento Junin home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Huracan away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–015.0%
- 0–114.8%
- 1–013.6%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–27.3%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.1%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.10 | 85.5% | 87.5% | 1.14 | +2.0 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.53 | 60.9% | 62.5% | 1.60 | +1.6 |
| Match result | Away | 2.68 | 34.8% | 36.2% | 2.76 | +1.4 |
| Match result | Home | 2.98 | 31.3% | 32.0% | 3.13 | +0.7 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.35 | 69.7% | 70.4% | 1.42 | +0.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.38 | 67.8% | 68.2% | 1.47 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.38 | 67.8% | 68.0% | 1.47 | +0.2 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 3.10 | 30.3% | 29.6% | 3.38 | -0.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.45 | 64.5% | 63.8% | 1.57 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.38 | 39.1% | 37.5% | 2.67 | -1.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.76 | 33.8% | 31.8% | 3.14 | -2.0 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 6.50 | 14.5% | 12.5% | 8.00 | -2.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Sarmiento Junin
- 2026-10-09T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Aldosivi · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T00:15:00.000Z · A vs Racing Club · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Belgrano Cordoba · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T19:45:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Union Santa Fe · 1-4 (L)
Huracan
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Barracas Central · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Aldosivi · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T22:00:00.000Z · A vs River Plate · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Racing Club · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Belgrano Cordoba · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-14T22:45:00.000Z · Sarmiento Junin 0-1 Huracan (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2024-10-05T00:00:00.000Z · Sarmiento Junin 1-3 Huracan (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2023-05-21T21:00:00.000Z · Sarmiento Junin 0-0 Huracan (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2022-08-12T22:00:00.000Z · Sarmiento Junin 1-4 Huracan (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2021-09-13T17:15:00.000Z · Sarmiento Junin 0-0 Huracan (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2021-04-13T22:00:00.000Z · Sarmiento Junin 0-3 Huracan (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2016-09-24T23:15:00.000Z · Sarmiento Junin 0-0 Huracan (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2015-10-16T23:00:00.000Z · Sarmiento Junin 0-3 Huracan (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2014-10-19T18:00:00.000Z · Sarmiento Junin 2-2 Huracan (Primera Nacional)
- 2014-08-23T18:15:00.000Z · Sarmiento Junin 0-0 Huracan (Primera Nacional)
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.