Sarmiento Junin vs Racing Club Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.88 expected goals for Sarmiento Junin and 1.30 for Racing Club, a combined total of 2.17. That distribution gives Racing Club the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws roughly 54% of the time.

Model pick

Racing Club to Win

46.4% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

0.88 – 1.30

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Sarmiento Junin win25%

Draw29%

Racing Club win46%

Double chance 1X

54%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

75%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals64%

Over 2.5 goals37%

Over 3.5 goals18%

Both teams to score42%

Correct score

0–114.8%
1–112.9%
0–011.4%
1–09.9%
0–29.6%

Why the model likes this

Sarmiento Junin home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Racing Club away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Recent form

Sarmiento Junin

2026-08-08T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Tucuman · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-03T19:45:00.000Z · H vs Independ. Rivadavia · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-28T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Banfield · 2-3 (L)
2026-07-23T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Argentinos JRS · 2-3 (L)
2026-07-17T00:45:00.000Z · H vs Boca Juniors · 0-2 (L)

Racing Club

2026-08-14T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Banfield · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-09T23:15:00.000Z · A vs Argentinos JRS · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-01T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Tigre · 1-3 (L)
2026-07-29T00:15:00.000Z · A vs Rosario Central · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-24T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia L.P. · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-03-11T01:00:00.000Z · Sarmiento Junin 0-0 Racing Club (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2024-07-24T20:15:00.000Z · Sarmiento Junin 1-0 Racing Club (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2024-03-05T23:00:00.000Z · Sarmiento Junin 1-0 Racing Club (Copa de la Liga Profesional)
2023-10-20T00:00:00.000Z · Sarmiento Junin 1-1 Racing Club (Copa de la Liga Profesional)
2023-03-12T20:00:00.000Z · Sarmiento Junin 0-1 Racing Club (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2022-07-03T21:00:00.000Z · Sarmiento Junin 1-1 Racing Club (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2022-04-02T17:00:00.000Z · Sarmiento Junin 1-4 Racing Club (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2021-07-31T21:00:00.000Z · Sarmiento Junin 0-1 Racing Club (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2017-04-15T23:00:00.000Z · Sarmiento Junin 1-2 Racing Club (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2015-07-18T23:10:00.000Z · Sarmiento Junin 1-2 Racing Club (Liga Profesional Argentina)

Liga Profesional Argentina table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Estudiantes L.P.	16	9	4	3	12	31
2	Boca Juniors	16	8	6	2	13	30
3	Velez Sarsfield	16	7	7	2	6	28
4	Talleres Cordoba	16	7	5	4	4	26
5	Independiente	16	6	6	4	4	24
6	Lanus	16	6	6	4	3	24
7	San Lorenzo	16	5	7	4	0	22
8	Union Santa Fe	16	5	6	5	4	21
9	Instituto Cordoba	16	6	3	7	0	21
10	Defensa Y Justicia	16	4	7	5	-3	19
11	Gimnasia M.	16	5	4	7	-8	19
12	Platense	16	3	7	6	-5	16
13	Central Cordoba de Santiago	16	4	4	8	-10	16
14	Newells Old Boys	16	3	6	7	-12	15
15	Deportivo Riestra	16	1	8	7	-7	11
1	Independ. Rivadavia	16	10	4	2	14	34
2	River Plate	16	9	2	5	10	29
3	Argentinos JRS	16	8	5	3	4	29
4	Rosario Central	16	8	4	4	4	28
5	Belgrano Cordoba	16	7	5	4	4	26
6	Gimnasia L.P.	16	8	2	6	0	26
7	Huracan	16	5	7	4	4	22
8	Racing Club	16	5	6	5	2	21
9	Barracas Central	16	5	6	5	0	21
10	Tigre	16	4	8	4	3	20
11	Sarmiento Junin	16	6	1	9	-7	19
12	Banfield	16	5	3	8	-2	18
13	Atletico Tucuman	16	3	5	8	-5	14
14	Aldosivi	16	0	8	8	-13	8
15	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	16	1	2	13	-19	5
1	Velez Sarsfield	4	3	1	0	4	10
2	Instituto Cordoba	4	3	0	1	2	9
3	Newells Old Boys	5	2	1	2	1	7
4	Defensa Y Justicia	4	2	1	1	-1	7
5	Estudiantes L.P.	5	2	0	3	2	6
6	Lanus	4	2	0	2	2	6
7	Deportivo Riestra	5	2	0	3	1	6
8	Independiente	4	2	0	2	1	6
9	Gimnasia M.	4	2	0	2	1	6
10	Central Cordoba de Santiago	4	2	0	2	-1	6
11	Boca Juniors	5	1	3	1	-2	6
12	San Lorenzo	5	2	0	3	-2	6
13	Platense	5	1	2	2	-4	5
14	Union Santa Fe	5	1	1	3	-3	4
15	Talleres Cordoba	4	1	0	3	-2	3
1	Argentinos JRS	4	4	0	0	6	12
2	Belgrano Cordoba	5	3	1	1	4	10
3	Barracas Central	4	3	0	1	1	9
4	Gimnasia L.P.	5	3	0	2	-1	9
5	Tigre	5	2	2	1	2	8
6	Huracan	4	2	1	1	2	7
7	Rosario Central	4	2	1	1	1	7
8	Independ. Rivadavia	5	2	1	2	-1	7
9	Banfield	5	2	1	2	-1	7
10	Sarmiento Junin	4	2	0	2	0	6
11	Atletico Tucuman	4	1	2	1	1	5
12	Racing Club	5	1	1	3	-3	4
13	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	4	1	1	2	-3	4
14	Aldosivi	5	0	2	3	-3	2
15	River Plate	4	0	0	4	-4	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.