· Analysis updated 17:17 UTC
Sarmiento Res. vs Unión Santa Fe Res. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.73 expected goals for Sarmiento Res. and 0.93 for Unión Santa Fe Res., a combined total of 1.65. That distribution gives Unión Santa Fe Res. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 23% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
72.8% probability
Expected goals
0.73 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sarmiento Res. home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Unión Santa Fe Res. away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
66%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–019.2%
- 0–117.8%
- 1–013.9%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–28.2%
Recent form
Sarmiento Res.
- 2026-10-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Tigre Res. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs San Lorenzo Res. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Vélez Sársfield Res. · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-01T22:00:00.000Z · A vs River Plate Res. · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Atl. Rafaela 2 · 3-1 (W)
Unión Santa Fe Res.
- 2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Colón Res. · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Tigre Res. · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs San Lorenzo Res. · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Vélez Sársfield Res. · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-26T00:30:00.000Z · A vs River Plate Res. · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-11T18:00:00.000Z · Sarmiento Res. 0-0 Unión Santa Fe Res. (Reserve League)
- 2026-03-02T20:00:00.000Z · Sarmiento Res. 0-1 Unión Santa Fe Res. (Reserve League)
- 2024-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · Sarmiento Res. 1-1 Unión Santa Fe Res. (Reserve League)
- 2024-04-10T18:00:00.000Z · Sarmiento Res. 1-0 Unión Santa Fe Res. (Reserve League)
- 2023-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · Sarmiento Res. 1-0 Unión Santa Fe Res. (Reserve League)
- 2023-05-14T14:00:00.000Z · Sarmiento Res. 1-2 Unión Santa Fe Res. (Reserve League)
- 2022-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · Sarmiento Res. 1-0 Unión Santa Fe Res. (Reserve League)
- 2022-02-25T12:00:00.000Z · Sarmiento Res. 2-0 Unión Santa Fe Res. (Reserve League)
Reserve League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 72.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 31% and over 2.5 goals at 23%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.