Estadio Centenario · Analysis updated 11:40 UTC
Sarmiento Resistencia vs Boca Unidos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.17 expected goals for Sarmiento Resistencia and 1.28 for Boca Unidos, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Boca Unidos the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.1% probability
Expected goals
1.17 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sarmiento Resistencia home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Boca Unidos away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Boca Unidos to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 34% / 27% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.17 goals for Sarmiento Resistencia and 1.28 for Boca Unidos, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 0–111.0%
- 1–010.1%
- 0–08.6%
- 1–28.2%
Recent form
Sarmiento Resistencia
- 2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia Concepción · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Tucuman Central · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Las Parejas · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Boca Unidos · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-12T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Independiente De Chivilcoy · 2-1 (W)
Boca Unidos
- 2026-10-17T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Bartolomé Mitre · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Bartolomé Mitre · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Defensores de Vilelas · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs El Linqueño · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia Concepción · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.