Estadio Centenario · Analysis updated 16:49 UTC
Sarmiento Resistencia vs Sol de América Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.84 expected goals for Sarmiento Resistencia and 1.45 for Sol de América, a combined total of 2.29. That distribution gives Sol de América the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sol de América win
51.5% probability
Expected goals
0.84 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sarmiento Resistencia home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sol de América away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sol de América to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 22% / 27% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.84 goals for Sarmiento Resistencia and 1.45 for Sol de América, a combined 2.29 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.7%
- 1–112.3%
- 0–210.6%
- 0–010.1%
- 1–28.9%
Recent form
Sarmiento Resistencia
- 2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia Concepción · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Tucuman Central · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Las Parejas · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Boca Unidos · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-12T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Independiente De Chivilcoy · 2-1 (W)
Sol de América
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cipolletti · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-27T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Cipolletti · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs 9 de Julio Rafaela · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Belgrano · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sol de América win, at 51.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.