· Analysis updated 15:25 UTC
Sarnese vs Sarrabus Ogliastra Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.59 expected goals for Sarnese and 0.71 for Sarrabus Ogliastra, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Sarnese the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Sarnese win
58.6% probability
Expected goals
1.59 – 0.71
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sarnese home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Sarrabus Ogliastra away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sarnese to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 25% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.59 goals for Sarnese and 0.71 for Sarrabus Ogliastra, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.9%
- 2–012.7%
- 1–111.3%
- 0–010.0%
- 2–19.0%
Recent form
Sarnese
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Lodigiani · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Paganese · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ossese · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gelbison · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Venafro · 1-0 (W)
Sarrabus Ogliastra
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Afragolese · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Latte Dolce · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Latte Dolce · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Unipomezia · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Albalonga · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone G table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sarnese | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 17 |
| 2 | Monastir | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
| 3 | Paganese | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 13 |
| 4 | Certosa V. Campagnano | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 5 | Unipomezia | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 6 | Ossese | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 7 | Anzio | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Trastevere | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 11 |
| 9 | Città di Anagni | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Aranova | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | Albalonga | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Afragolese | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Gelbison | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 14 | Budoni | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 15 | Sarrabus Ogliastra | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 16 | Latte Dolce | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Venafro | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
| 18 | Atletico Lodigiani | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sarnese win, at 58.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.