Sarpsborg Stadion · Referee Kristoffer Hagenes, Norway · Analysis updated 15:20 UTC
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.10 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives Sarpsborg 08 FF the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sarpsborg 08 FF win
53.2% probability
Expected goals
1.78 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sarpsborg 08 FF home form
1 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Ham-Kam away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 1–010.0%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–08.9%
- 0–16.2%
Recent form
Sarpsborg 08 FF
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Aalesund · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Follo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs KFUM Oslo · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Fredrikstad · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Valerenga · 2-2 (D)
Ham-Kam
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Tromso · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Kjelsås · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Molde · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rosenborg · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kristiansund BK · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-26T15:00:00.000Z · Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-0 Ham-Kam (Eliteserien)
- 2026-03-26T11:30:00.000Z · Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-2 Ham-Kam (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2026-02-13T10:00:00.000Z · Sarpsborg 08 FF 3-2 Ham-Kam (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-08-31T15:00:00.000Z · Sarpsborg 08 FF 3-1 Ham-Kam (Eliteserien)
- 2025-05-11T15:00:00.000Z · Sarpsborg 08 FF 4-0 Ham-Kam (Eliteserien)
- 2025-03-07T15:30:00.000Z · Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-1 Ham-Kam (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-10-20T15:00:00.000Z · Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-0 Ham-Kam (Eliteserien)
- 2024-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-7 Ham-Kam (Eliteserien)
- 2024-03-16T14:00:00.000Z · Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-0 Ham-Kam (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2023-09-24T15:00:00.000Z · Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-1 Ham-Kam (Eliteserien)
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viking | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 36 | 53 |
| 2 | Bodo/Glimt | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 36 | 53 |
| 3 | Tromso | 22 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 39 |
| 4 | Molde | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 37 |
| 5 | Rosenborg | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 34 |
| 6 | Lillestrom | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | -1 | 33 |
| 7 | Brann | 22 | 9 | 2 | 11 | 5 | 29 |
| 8 | Fredrikstad | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | -7 | 29 |
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | -3 | 28 |
| 10 | KFUM Oslo | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | -9 | 28 |
| 11 | Ham-Kam | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | -13 | 26 |
| 12 | Sandefjord | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | -6 | 24 |
| 13 | Valerenga | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -10 | 23 |
| 14 | Aalesund | 22 | 4 | 9 | 9 | -15 | 21 |
| 15 | Kristiansund BK | 22 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -21 | 19 |
| 16 | Start | 22 | 4 | 4 | 14 | -24 | 16 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sarpsborg 08 FF win, at 53.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.