· Analysis updated 11:53 UTC
Sarpsborg 08 II vs Bjørkelangen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.82 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 II and 1.25 for Bjørkelangen, a combined total of 5.07. That distribution gives Sarpsborg 08 II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 82%, with the draw at 10%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 87% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 82% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sarpsborg 08 II win
82.3% probability
Expected goals
3.82 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sarpsborg 08 II home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bjørkelangen away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sarpsborg 08 II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 82%, against 82% / 10% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.82 goals for Sarpsborg 08 II and 1.25 for Bjørkelangen, a combined 5.07 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
90%
Double chance X2
18%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–17.3%
- 4–17.0%
- 3–05.8%
- 2–15.7%
- 4–05.6%
Recent form
Sarpsborg 08 II
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Drøbak / Frogn · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gjøvik-Lyn · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lyn II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Lillehammer · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ørn Horten · 4-3 (W)
Bjørkelangen
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Gjøvik-Lyn · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Elverum · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Drøbak / Frogn · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lillehammer · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Brumunddal · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Division - Girone 6 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lillehammer | 25 | 19 | 2 | 4 | 56 | 59 |
| 2 | Elverum | 25 | 17 | 2 | 6 | 31 | 53 |
| 3 | Råde | 25 | 14 | 4 | 7 | 45 | 46 |
| 4 | Gjøvik-Lyn | 25 | 14 | 2 | 9 | 20 | 44 |
| 5 | Drøbak / Frogn | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 41 |
| 6 | Ørn Horten | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 38 |
| 7 | Raelingen | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | -6 | 38 |
| 8 | Lyn II | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 34 |
| 9 | Oppsal | 24 | 10 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 33 |
| 10 | Sandefjord II | 24 | 10 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 33 |
| 11 | Sarpsborg 08 II | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 32 |
| 12 | Fram | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | -9 | 29 |
| 13 | Brumunddal | 25 | 3 | 3 | 19 | -83 | 12 |
| 14 | Bjørkelangen | 25 | 1 | 0 | 24 | -89 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sarpsborg 08 II win, at 82.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 87%.
A 82% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.