· Analysis updated 14:08 UTC
Sarpsborg 08 II vs Elverum Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.22 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 II and 2.30 for Elverum, a combined total of 4.52. That distribution gives Elverum the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 80% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
61.1% probability
Expected goals
2.22 – 2.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sarpsborg 08 II home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Elverum away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Elverum to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 39% / 19% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.22 goals for Sarpsborg 08 II and 2.30 for Elverum, a combined 4.52 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–27.1%
- 1–26.4%
- 2–16.2%
- 1–15.5%
- 2–35.4%
Recent form
Sarpsborg 08 II
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Drøbak / Frogn · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gjøvik-Lyn · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lyn II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Lillehammer · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ørn Horten · 4-3 (W)
Elverum
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bjørkelangen · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sandefjord II · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Raelingen · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Raufoss · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Råde · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Division - Girone 6 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lillehammer | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 51 | 53 |
| 2 | Elverum | 22 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 44 |
| 3 | Råde | 21 | 12 | 3 | 6 | 30 | 39 |
| 4 | Gjøvik-Lyn | 22 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 38 |
| 5 | Drøbak / Frogn | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 19 | 35 |
| 6 | Ørn Horten | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 35 |
| 7 | Sandefjord II | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 33 |
| 8 | Oppsal | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 33 |
| 9 | Raelingen | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | -15 | 31 |
| 10 | Lyn II | 21 | 9 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 30 |
| 11 | Sarpsborg 08 II | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | -3 | 28 |
| 12 | Fram | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -10 | 23 |
| 13 | Brumunddal | 22 | 3 | 3 | 16 | -63 | 12 |
| 14 | Bjørkelangen | 22 | 1 | 0 | 21 | -71 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 61.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 80% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.