· Analysis updated 15:33 UTC
Sarrabus Ogliastra vs Monastir Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.32 expected goals for Sarrabus Ogliastra and 1.95 for Monastir, a combined total of 3.27. That distribution gives Monastir the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Monastir win
52.1% probability
Expected goals
1.32 – 1.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sarrabus Ogliastra home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Monastir away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Monastir to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 26% / 22% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.32 goals for Sarrabus Ogliastra and 1.95 for Monastir, a combined 3.27 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.8%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–17.4%
- 0–27.2%
- 2–16.5%
Recent form
Sarrabus Ogliastra
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Afragolese · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Latte Dolce · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Latte Dolce · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Unipomezia · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Albalonga · 1-1 (D)
Monastir
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Latte Dolce · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Budoni · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Albalonga · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Aranova · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Anzio · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone G table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sarnese | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 20 |
| 2 | Monastir | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 16 |
| 3 | Certosa V. Campagnano | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | Trastevere | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 14 |
| 5 | Paganese | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 13 |
| 6 | Unipomezia | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 7 | Ossese | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Albalonga | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 9 | Aranova | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 10 | Anzio | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 11 | Afragolese | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 12 | Città di Anagni | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Gelbison | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Venafro | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 15 | Budoni | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 16 | Sarrabus Ogliastra | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 17 | Latte Dolce | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 18 | Atletico Lodigiani | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Monastir win, at 52.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.