· Analysis updated 00:16 UTC
Sarriana vs Celta de Vigo III Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.34 expected goals for Sarriana and 1.39 for Celta de Vigo III, a combined total of 3.73. That distribution gives Sarriana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sarriana win
58.5% probability
Expected goals
2.34 – 1.39
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sarriana home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Celta de Vigo III away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sarriana to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 19% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.34 goals for Sarriana and 1.39 for Celta de Vigo III, a combined 3.73 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.1%
- 1–17.8%
- 3–17.1%
- 2–06.6%
- 2–26.4%
Recent form
Sarriana
- 2026-09-26T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Celta de Vigo III · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Alondras · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Viveiro · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Estradense · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Racing Santander II · 3-4 (L)
Celta de Vigo III
- 2026-10-18T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Celtiga · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Coruña · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Arteixo · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sarriana · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Antela · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boiro | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 2 | Sarriana | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 3 | Lalin | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | Barco | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Antela | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Portonovo SD | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 7 | Silva | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Villalbés | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Alondras | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Celtiga | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Estradense | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | Atlético Arteixo | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 13 | Coruña | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 | Pontevedra II | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 15 | Somozas | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 16 | Celta de Vigo III | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 17 | Viveiro | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 18 | Arenteiro | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sarriana win, at 58.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.