· Analysis updated 13:52 UTC
Sasel vs Harksheide Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Sasel and 1.50 for Harksheide, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Harksheide the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.3% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sasel home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Harksheide away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 0–19.6%
- 1–29.0%
- 1–08.0%
- 2–17.5%
Recent form
Sasel
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vorwärts-Wacker 04 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T10:30:00.000Z · A vs HT16 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Niendorfer TSV · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T08:45:00.000Z · A vs Paloma · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Nikola Tesla · 3-2 (W)
Harksheide
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Altona 93 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Buchholz · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-11T17:30:00.000Z · A vs ETSV Hamburg · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-04T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Concordia · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Teutonia Ottensen · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-16T09:00:00.000Z · Sasel 3-1 Harksheide (Oberliga - Hamburg)
- 2026-03-20T18:30:00.000Z · Sasel 2-1 Harksheide (Oberliga - Hamburg)
- 2025-10-05T13:00:00.000Z · Sasel 6-2 Harksheide (Oberliga - Hamburg)
- 2025-04-06T13:00:00.000Z · Sasel 0-0 Harksheide (Oberliga - Hamburg)
- 2024-10-18T17:30:00.000Z · Sasel 1-1 Harksheide (Oberliga - Hamburg)
- 2023-11-24T18:30:00.000Z · Sasel 1-1 Harksheide (Oberliga - Hamburg)
- 2023-08-06T13:00:00.000Z · Sasel 3-1 Harksheide (Oberliga - Hamburg)
- 2022-12-02T18:30:00.000Z · Sasel 0-1 Harksheide (Oberliga - Hamburg)
- 2022-08-14T13:00:00.000Z · Sasel 5-1 Harksheide (Oberliga - Hamburg)
Oberliga - Hamburg table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paloma | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 26 |
| 2 | Tus Dassendorf | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 23 |
| 3 | Victoria Hamburg | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 23 |
| 4 | Altona 93 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 21 |
| 5 | Vorwärts-Wacker 04 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 21 |
| 6 | HT16 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 20 |
| 7 | Niendorfer TSV | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 20 |
| 8 | Pinneberg | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 17 |
| 9 | Sasel | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 17 |
| 10 | Süderelbe | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 15 |
| 11 | HEBC | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | -3 | 15 |
| 12 | Buchholz | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 15 |
| 13 | ETSV Hamburg | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 14 |
| 14 | Teutonia Ottensen | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 12 |
| 15 | Nikola Tesla | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -1 | 11 |
| 16 | Concordia | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -12 | 11 |
| 17 | Harksheide | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -9 | 8 |
| 18 | Norderstedt II | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | -23 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.