Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore · Referee Francesco Fourneau · Analysis updated 19:48 UTC
Sassuolo vs AC Milan Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Sassuolo and 1.57 for AC Milan, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives AC Milan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
AC Milan win
52.3% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 1.57
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sassuolo home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AC Milan away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.9%
- 1–112.0%
- 0–210.1%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–08.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.7%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.05 (model 52.1% vs market 45.8%, edge +6.3 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.05 | 45.8% | 52.1% | 1.92 | +6.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.00 | 46.9% | 47.6% | 2.10 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Home | 4.20 | 21.9% | 22.3% | 4.48 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.60 | 25.5% | 25.3% | 3.95 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 1.75 | 52.6% | 52.3% | 1.91 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.0% | 74.6% | 1.34 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.20 | 78.1% | 77.6% | 1.29 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.73 | 54.2% | 47.9% | 2.09 | -6.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Sassuolo
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs AC Milan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Monza · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Juventus · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bologna · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Frosinone · 1-1 (D)
AC Milan
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sassuolo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lecce · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Benfica · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lazio · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Juventus · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · Sassuolo 2-0 AC Milan (Serie A)
- 2025-12-14T11:30:00.000Z · Sassuolo 2-2 AC Milan (Serie A)
- 2024-12-03T20:00:00.000Z · Sassuolo 1-6 AC Milan (Coppa Italia)
- 2024-04-14T13:00:00.000Z · Sassuolo 3-3 AC Milan (Serie A)
- 2023-12-30T17:00:00.000Z · Sassuolo 0-1 AC Milan (Serie A)
- 2023-01-29T11:30:00.000Z · Sassuolo 5-2 AC Milan (Serie A)
- 2022-08-30T16:30:00.000Z · Sassuolo 0-0 AC Milan (Serie A)
- 2022-05-22T16:00:00.000Z · Sassuolo 0-3 AC Milan (Serie A)
- 2021-11-28T14:00:00.000Z · Sassuolo 3-1 AC Milan (Serie A)
- 2021-04-21T16:30:00.000Z · Sassuolo 2-1 AC Milan (Serie A)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 14 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 6 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | Como | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is AC Milan win, at 52.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.