Sassuolo vs Frosinone Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Sassuolo and 1.78 for Frosinone, a combined total of 3.18. That distribution gives Frosinone the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Frosinone win

46.4% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.40 – 1.78

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sassuolo home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Frosinone away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 9 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Sassuolo win31%

Draw23%

Frosinone win46%

Double chance 1X

54%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

70%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score63%

Correct score

1–110.4%
1–29.2%
0–17.4%
2–17.3%
0–26.6%

Recent form

Sassuolo

2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs AC Milan · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Monza · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Juventus · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bologna · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Frosinone · 1-1 (D)

Frosinone

2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Napoli · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Benevento · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Como · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Genoa · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Venezia · 3-2 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-09-02T13:00:00.000Z · Sassuolo 1-1 Frosinone (Coppa Italia)
2025-05-13T18:30:00.000Z · Sassuolo 0-1 Frosinone (Serie B)
2024-12-14T14:00:00.000Z · Sassuolo 2-1 Frosinone (Serie B)
2024-03-09T14:00:00.000Z · Sassuolo 1-0 Frosinone (Serie A)
2023-09-17T13:00:00.000Z · Sassuolo 2-4 Frosinone (Serie A)
2019-05-05T13:00:00.000Z · Sassuolo 2-2 Frosinone (Serie A)
2018-12-16T14:00:00.000Z · Sassuolo 2-0 Frosinone (Serie A)
2016-05-08T13:00:00.000Z · Sassuolo 1-0 Frosinone (Serie A)
2016-01-06T14:00:00.000Z · Sassuolo 2-2 Frosinone (Serie A)

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Inter	6	5	1	0	10	16
2	Lazio	6	5	1	0	7	16
3	AS Roma	6	4	2	0	11	14
4	Cagliari	6	4	1	1	3	13
5	AC Milan	6	3	3	0	6	12
6	Juventus	6	3	2	1	4	11
7	Como	6	3	2	1	3	11
8	Napoli	6	3	1	2	4	10
9	Frosinone	6	3	1	2	2	10
10	Atalanta	6	3	0	3	0	9
11	Sassuolo	6	2	2	2	0	8
12	Torino	6	2	1	3	-2	7
13	Lecce	6	2	0	4	-6	6
14	Bologna	6	1	2	3	-2	5
15	Udinese	6	1	1	4	-4	4
16	Monza	6	1	1	4	-6	4
17	Genoa	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	Parma	6	1	1	4	-6	4
19	Fiorentina	6	1	1	4	-7	4
20	Venezia	6	0	0	6	-11	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Frosinone win, at 46.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.