· Analysis updated 04:35 UTC
Sassuolo vs Parma Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Sassuolo and 1.18 for Parma, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Sassuolo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.
Model pick
Sassuolo or Draw
69.8% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-baseline-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.3%
- 2–07.7%
Why the model likes this
Parma away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sassuolo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Sassuolo and 1.18 for Parma, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 50% and both teams to score at 54%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Recent form
Sassuolo
Parma
- 2026-08-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Catania · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sampdoria · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-02T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Iraklis 1908 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Arezzo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sassuolo · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A table
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.