Stadio Enzo Ricci · Referee A. Bortolussi · Analysis updated 13:25 UTC
Sassuolo W vs AC Milan W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Sassuolo W and 2.16 for AC Milan W, a combined total of 3.92. That distribution gives AC Milan W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
AC Milan W win
47.5% probability
Expected goals
1.76 – 2.16
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sassuolo W home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AC Milan W away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AC Milan W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 32% / 21% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for Sassuolo W and 2.16 for AC Milan W, a combined 3.92 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.2%
- 1–17.5%
- 2–27.2%
- 2–16.6%
- 1–35.9%
Recent form
Sassuolo W
- 2026-10-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Como 1907 W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-17T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Napoli W · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Fiorentina W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Roma W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Roma W · 1-7 (L)
AC Milan W
- 2026-10-24T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Ternana W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Roma W · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Juventus W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Como 1907 W · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Juventus W · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roma W | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| 2 | Inter Milano W | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| 3 | Como 1907 W | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| 4 | Fiorentina W | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | AC Milan W | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 6 | Ternana W | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 7 | Como W | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 8 | Napoli W | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Juventus W | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 10 | Lazio W | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 2 |
| 11 | Parma W | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 1 |
| 12 | Sassuolo W | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is AC Milan W win, at 47.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.