· Analysis updated 02:17 UTC
Saudi Arabia U21 vs Colombia U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.21 expected goals for Saudi Arabia U21 and 1.38 for Colombia U19, a combined total of 3.59. That distribution gives Saudi Arabia U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Saudi Arabia U21 win
56.4% probability
Expected goals
2.21 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Colombia U19 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Saudi Arabia U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 20% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.21 goals for Saudi Arabia U21 and 1.38 for Colombia U19, a combined 3.59 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 70% and both teams to score at 67%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.3%
- 1–18.4%
- 3–16.9%
- 2–06.8%
- 2–26.4%
Recent form
Saudi Arabia U21
Colombia U19
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Chile U19 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Panama U19 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Peru U19 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-06-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Tunisia U23 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-06-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Congo DR U20 · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tournoi Maurice Revello table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portugal U20 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 13 |
| 2 | Côte d'Ivoire U20 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 11 |
| 3 | Tunisia U23 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Congo DR U20 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 5 | Japan U20 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 7 |
| 6 | Saudi Arabia U21 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | China PR U20 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 6 |
| 8 | Canada U20 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 9 | Colombia U19 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 2 |
| 10 | Venezuela U20 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Saudi Arabia U21 win, at 56.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.