Saudi Arabia vs Palestine Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Saudi Arabia and 1.41 for Palestine, a combined total of 2.64. That distribution gives Palestine the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

66.9% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.23 – 1.41

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Saudi Arabia home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Palestine away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 7 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Saudi Arabia win33%

Draw26%

Palestine win41%

Double chance 1X

59%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

67%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals27%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.4%
0–110.0%
1–08.8%
1–28.7%
2–17.6%

Recent form

Saudi Arabia

2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Kuwait · 1-0 (W)
2026-06-27T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Cape Verde Islands · 0-0 (D)
2026-06-21T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Spain · 0-4 (L)
2026-06-15T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Uruguay · 1-1 (D)
2026-06-09T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Senegal · 0-0 (D)

Palestine

2026-10-02T11:35:00.000Z · A vs China · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-30T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Konyaspor · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-28T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Tajikistan · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-24T09:30:00.000Z · H vs New Zealand · 2-2 (D)
2026-06-09T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Kyrgyzstan · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2025-12-11T17:30:00.000Z · Saudi Arabia 2-1 Palestine (Arab Cup)
2024-01-09T15:30:00.000Z · Saudi Arabia 0-0 Palestine (Friendlies)
2021-12-04T19:00:00.000Z · Saudi Arabia 1-1 Palestine (Arab Cup)
2021-03-30T17:30:00.000Z · Saudi Arabia 5-0 Palestine (World Cup - Qualification Asia)
2019-10-15T13:00:00.000Z · Saudi Arabia 0-0 Palestine (World Cup - Qualification Asia)
2015-11-09T14:00:00.000Z · Saudi Arabia 0-0 Palestine (World Cup - Qualification Asia)
2015-06-11T18:00:00.000Z · Saudi Arabia 3-2 Palestine (World Cup - Qualification Asia)

Asian Cup table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Kuwait	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Oman	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Palestine	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Saudi Arabia	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bahrain	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Uzbekistan	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	North Korea	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Jordan	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Syria	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Iran	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Kyrgyzstan	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	China	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Singapore	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Tajikistan	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Australia	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Iraq	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Yemen	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Vietnam	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	South Korea	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	United Arab Emirates	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Thailand	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Japan	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Qatar	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Indonesia	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Palestine	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	North Korea	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Kyrgyzstan	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Australia	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	South Korea	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Qatar	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.