King Abdullah Sports City · Referee J. Pinheiro · Analysis updated 14:37 UTC
Saudi Arabia vs Qatar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Saudi Arabia and 0.99 for Qatar, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Saudi Arabia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Saudi Arabia win
46.2% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Saudi Arabia home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Qatar away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Saudi Arabia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 27% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Saudi Arabia and 0.99 for Qatar, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.9%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–09.3%
- 0–19.2%
- 2–09.0%
Recent form
Saudi Arabia
- 2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Kuwait · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-27T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Cape Verde Islands · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-06-21T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Spain · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-06-15T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Uruguay · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-09T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Senegal · 0-0 (D)
Qatar
- 2026-09-30T17:30:00.000Z · A vs United Arab Emirates · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T15:55:00.000Z · A vs Yemen · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-24T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Bahrain · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-06-24T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Bosnia & Herzegovina · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-06-18T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Canada · 0-6 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Saudi Arabia win, at 46.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.