Saudi Arabia vs United Arab Emirates Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Saudi Arabia and 1.10 for United Arab Emirates, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Saudi Arabia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Saudi Arabia win

46.4% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.50 – 1.10

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Saudi Arabia home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
United Arab Emirates away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Saudi Arabia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 26% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Saudi Arabia and 1.10 for United Arab Emirates, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Saudi Arabia win46%

Draw26%

United Arab Emirates win28%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

54%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

1–112.3%
1–011.1%
2–19.2%
2–08.4%
0–18.2%

Recent form

Saudi Arabia

2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Kuwait · 1-0 (W)
2026-06-27T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Cape Verde Islands · 0-0 (D)
2026-06-21T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Spain · 0-4 (L)
2026-06-15T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Uruguay · 1-1 (D)
2026-06-09T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Senegal · 0-0 (D)

United Arab Emirates

2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Saudi Arabia · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-03T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Oman · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-30T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Qatar · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Bahrain · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-24T15:55:00.000Z · H vs Yemen · 4-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Arab Cup table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Palestine	3	1	2	0	1	5
2	Syria	3	1	2	0	1	5
3	Tunisia	3	1	1	1	2	4
4	Qatar	3	0	1	2	-4	1
1	Morocco	3	2	1	0	3	7
2	Saudi Arabia	3	2	0	1	2	6
3	Oman	3	1	1	1	0	4
4	Comoros	3	0	0	3	-5	0
1	Jordan	3	3	0	0	6	9
2	United Arab Emirates	3	1	1	1	1	4
3	Egypt	3	0	2	1	-3	2
4	Kuwait	3	0	1	2	-4	1
1	Algeria	3	2	1	0	6	7
2	Iraq	3	2	0	1	1	6
3	Bahrain	3	1	0	2	-3	3
4	Sudan	3	0	1	2	-4	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Saudi Arabia win, at 46.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.