Stade des Rives du Thouet · Analysis updated 13:40 UTC
Saumur vs Montlouis Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Saumur and 1.22 for Montlouis, a combined total of 2.52. That distribution gives Saumur the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.3% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Saumur home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Montlouis away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Saumur to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 27% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Saumur and 1.22 for Montlouis, a combined 2.52 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 1–010.5%
- 0–19.8%
- 2–18.3%
- 0–08.1%
Recent form
Saumur
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Saint-Malo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Stade Briochin · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Le Poiré sur Vie · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Pontivy GSI · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayonne · 0-1 (L)
Montlouis
- 2026-10-03T17:00:00.000Z · H vs St-Pryvé St-Hilaire · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Biesheim · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Creteil · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Furiani-Agliani · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Epinal · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National 2 - Group A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St Maur Lusitanos | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 15 |
| 2 | Chambly Thelle FC | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 3 | Creteil | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | Racing Colombes 92 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | Furiani-Agliani | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 6 | Feignies-Aulnoye | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Biesheim | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 8 | Dieppe | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 9 | Le Pays du Valois | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 |
| 10 | Bastia-Borgo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | Haguenau | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | Montlouis | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 6 |
| 13 | Epinal | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Colmar | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 5 |
| 15 | St-Pryvé St-Hilaire | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 16 | Chantilly | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -15 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.